One of the most offensive characteristics of my baby-boomer generation has been its love affair — at least heretofore — with conspicuous consumption,
the syndrome identified by Thorstein Veblen in early 20th century America – showing off to everyone how well you were doing financially …
In typical “theory as question” [ see Part II ] fashion, this annoying cultural dynamic had definite economic effects, the so-called “wealth effect”, as this article in the New York Times outlines:
Economists subscribe to a so-called wealth effect: as households amass wealth, they tend to expand their spending over the following year, typically by 3 to 5 percent of the increase.
Between 2003 and 2007 — prime years of the housing boom — the net worth of an American household expanded to about $540,000, from about $400,000, according to an analysis of federal data by Moody’s Economy.com …
[Consequently] Americans have tapped stock portfolios and borrowed against homes to fill wardrobes with clothes, garages with cars and living rooms with furniture and electronics …
Millions of Americans spent years tapping credit cards, stock portfolios and once-rising home values to spend in excess of their incomes …
Now, however, it seems the boomer love affair with showing off their money is finally beginning to diminish …
However much that might make daily life in the US more pleasant, the economic effect of this cultural change may not be so positive …
Now, the wealth effect is working in reverse: by the first three months of this year, household net worth had dropped to $421,000.
“Not only have people lost money, but they don’t expect as much appreciation in the money they have, and that should affect consumption,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “This is a cultural shift going on. People will save more.”
As recently as the middle of 2007, Americans saved less than 2 percent of their income, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In recent months, the rate has exceeded 4 percent …
… the recession has endured so long and spread pain so broadly that it has seeped into the culture, downgrading expectations, clouding assumptions about the future and eroding the impulse to buy …
“We’re at an inflection point with respect to the American consumer,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy .com, who correctly forecast a dip in spending heading into the recession, and who provided data supporting sustained weakness.“Lower-income households can’t borrow, and higher-income households no longer feel wealthy,” Mr. Zandi added. “There’s still a lot of debt out there. It throws a pall over the potential for a strong recovery. The economy is going to struggle.”
… Home values are sharply lower. Banks remain reluctant to lend in the aftermath of a global financial crisis.Households must increasingly depend upon paychecks to finance spending, a reality that seems likely to curb consumption:
Unemployment stands at 9.4 percent and is expected to climb higher. Working hours have been slashed even for those with jobs.
As happens so often in life, you have to take the bad with the good …
…
And in this case, a more pleasant daily experience from the annoyance point of view is, unfortunately, going to result in the continuation of a difficult economic dynamic …
